Probability of Bitcoin Split in Two Chains Has Been Growing
CryptoBit News Today2 min read
The broader community of Bitcoin miners has failed to meet the initial BIP 148 cutoff intended to avoid a blockchain split. With the disagreement over Bitcoin scaling seemingly nearing a climax, the coming two weeks could be decisive. The uncertainty around the potential split has already impacted the price of Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency hovering just $70 off dropping below $2,000 - its lowest price for two months, according to Coinmarketcap.
As for the Bitcoin network, there have been missed BIP 148 deadlines, leading to uncertainty
The missed deadline for SegWit activation
The initial path was to secure SegWit prior to August 1 using an activation method designed by Bitcoin Core and deployed across numerous network nodes. Under this mechanism, 95 percent of mining power had to endorse the upgrade throughout a two-week difficulty interval. The final difficulty period ending before August 1 began on Friday UTC, but only around half of the blocks generated in the first day and a half endorsed Segregated Witness, hitting the 101 non-supporting blocks needed to miss the target.
How BIP 148 rules could lead to a chain split
In particular, the User Activated Soft Fork, BIP 148, is scheduled to activate Segregated Witness ( SegWit ) on August 1, 00:00 UTC. From this deadline, BIP 148 nodes will reject non-SegWit blocks, potentially leading to a split if a majority of miners don’t adopt SegWit by then. This would create at least two varieties of Bitcoin—one supporting BIP 148 and another that does not—with the possibility of additional versions appearing.
Averting a split through BIP 91
Additionally, a large majority of miners is indicating support for SegWit via BIP 91. The next BIP 148 deadline comes on July 29, which is the last day BIP 91 can activate in time for BIP 148, requiring 80 percent of hash power to signal support within 2 1/3 days. If missed, BIP 148 miners will have one more chance, but miners could still switch to reunite both chains. However, reuniting the blockchains after August 1 through a majority miner migration would likely trigger severe network disruptions and potentially cost uninformed users their funds.
