Mizuho said in a research report on Friday that interest income from Circle’s USD Coin (USDC) has grown in significance for cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN), accounting for 10% to 15% of third quarter revenue, despite declining sentiment and trading volumes.
For the years 2023 to 2024, Mizuho anticipates lower crypto trading volumes, which will translate into lower exchange revenue. The bank lowered its price target for Coinbase shares from $42 to $30 and downgraded its rating on the stock from neutral to underperform. Shares of Coinbase decreased 2.8% in premarket trading to $41.60.
The report warned that any potential modifications to Coinbase’s USDC revenue from Circle could have a “amplified negative effect on its profitability.”
On Friday, Coinbase, a co-founder of USDC, waived conversion costs for users who wanted to switch from Tether’s USDT to USDC.
Despite the risks associated with interest income, the bank’s analysis reveals that 2023 revenue projections are probably too high.
Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, predicted on Wednesday that the company’s revenue will be half or less of what it was in 2017, as the exchange struggles in the face of steep drops in cryptocurrency prices and the ongoing fallout from several bankruptcies this year, including the most recent failure of rival exchange FTX.
Shares of Coinbase have lost over 80% of their value this year, making it one of the Nasdaq index’s worst-performing stocks.